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    How fast are the oceans warming?

    For those of you that don't rely on Trump for climate science, this article may be of interest:

    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128

    Climate change from human activities mainly results from the energy imbalance in Earth's climate system caused by rising concentrations of heat-trapping gases. About 93% of the energy imbalance accumulates in the ocean as increased ocean heat content (OHC). The ocean record of this imbalance is much less affected by internal variability and is thus better suited for detecting and attributing human influences (1) than more commonly used surface temperature records. Recent observation-based estimates show rapid warming of Earth's oceans over the past few decades (see the figure) (1, 2). This warming has contributed to increases in rainfall intensity, rising sea levels, the destruction of coral reefs, declining ocean oxygen levels, and declines in ice sheets; glaciers; and ice caps in the polar regions (3, 4). Recent estimates of observed warming resemble those seen in models, indicating that models reliably project changes in OHC.


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    1995 Bayliner 2452 Mercruiser 5.7L Alpha 1 Gen 2

    #2
    well...I know this will surprise you...but the water off our coast is MUCH cooler now than during the summer Click image for larger version

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    and....the last three summers the waters off our coast have been cooler than it was in 2015
    1997 Bayliner Trophy 2352
    5.7 Mercruiser/Alpha I Gen II /Full Closed Cooling
    San Diego, CA

    HookEmDanO out ......

    the more people I meet the more I love my dogs !

    Comment


      #3
      Highest Ever Water Temperature Recorded Off San Diego

      https://www.newsweek.com/record-wate...eather-1077197

      Comment


        #4
        wrong...I happen to actually go into the offshore waters of San Diego...BUT...you are the BOC expert on most everything including San Diego

        thee temps in this article are very near shore.....and a one day temp...where they dont get much current and the air temps were HOT a few days... hell if want records, ya could go into the back SD bay and it was mid 80s

        the water temps offshore in 2015 were 78 to 80...unheard of here...in my boating lifetime off SD...1987 till present...

        we were catching blue marlin and wahoo off SD...these fish have never been caught here that anyone could recall...last year the high temp I saw was 74 offshore...78 to 80...is very rare and the last 3 years were more normal...low to mid 70s
        1997 Bayliner Trophy 2352
        5.7 Mercruiser/Alpha I Gen II /Full Closed Cooling
        San Diego, CA

        HookEmDanO out ......

        the more people I meet the more I love my dogs !

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by hookemdano View Post
          wrong...I happen to actually go into the offshore waters of San Diego...BUT...you are the BOC expert on most everything including San Diego

          thee temps in this article are very near shore.....and a one day temp...where they dont get much current and the air temps were HOT a few days... hell if want records, ya could go into the back SD bay and it was mid 80s

          the water temps offshore in 2015 were 78 to 80...unheard of here...in my boating lifetime off SD...1987 till present...

          we were catching blue marlin and wahoo off SD...these fish have never been caught here that anyone could recall...last year the high temp I saw was 74 offshore...78 to 80...is very rare and the last 3 years were more normal...low to mid 70s
          Yes, all science is wrong and you are right. You should run for President.

          Comment


            #6
            science? a one day temp ? vs what the off shore temps for over a month?

            BUT...you are correct....even more rare...I should run for Prez
            1997 Bayliner Trophy 2352
            5.7 Mercruiser/Alpha I Gen II /Full Closed Cooling
            San Diego, CA

            HookEmDanO out ......

            the more people I meet the more I love my dogs !

            Comment


            • iceclimber
              iceclimber commented
              Editing a comment
              You might be a step up, but that is not exactly setting the bar very high.

            • hookemdano
              hookemdano commented
              Editing a comment
              thanks...I'll take over for Trump in 2025

              you think you have TDS now......ha ha ha haa ha...

            #7
            Cool Graph!!!

            Only one problem Mate!...

            Not only is almost the whole graph a prediction of future events...

            The graph even predicts a HUGE increase in the rate of warming.

            So...

            The graph is total effed up bullshit.

            Even if the graph were linear, it would still be questionable, but at least believable, but to apply what appears to be a exponental component is complete and total malarky!

            Or in other words complete bullshit.

            KEVIN SANDERS
            4788 LISAS WAY - SEWARD ALASKA

            Comment


              #8
              Originally posted by iceclimber View Post
              Highest Ever Water Temperature Recorded Off San Diego

              https://www.newsweek.com/record-wate...eather-1077197
              A little hard to not laugh at an article that says they have been taking water temperatures off shore in California since 1616, but assuming they made a typo and they meant started taking temps in August 16, 2016....that does not seem like a very long study..2 years?

              And it’s normal for the warm currents to come up from the south. Here’s a newsflash, if you go offshore 50 miles in Washington during Tuna season you can find 75-80 degree water.



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              Esteban
              Vancouver, BC
              Former Bayliners 3218, 2859, 2252, 1952

              Comment


              • hookemdano
                hookemdano commented
                Editing a comment
                the day of those temps we were having HOT temps...which caused the inshore "record"

                really 75 to 80 degrees 50 miles out? here normal would be 72 to 74 or so...cooler down here? who knew...oh I bet I know who knew...

              • iceclimber
                iceclimber commented
                Editing a comment
                That is a typo, it should be 1916. Bravo ! How's the border (the one near your house) ?

                https://phys.org/news/2018-08-highes...ipps-pier.html

              • hookemdano
                hookemdano commented
                Editing a comment
                uh...I know where scripps pier is...it is located in an area ...la jolla where the water temps are usually higher for shore...the pier sticks out a whole 100 yards or two...

                as far as the border near my house...let me tell you...thee WALL WORKS...works damn great

              #9
              Originally posted by ksanders View Post
              Cool Graph!!!

              Only one problem Mate!...

              Not only is almost the whole graph a prediction of future events...

              The graph even predicts a HUGE increase in the rate of warming.

              So...

              The graph is total effed up bullshit.

              Even if the graph were linear, it would still be questionable, but at least believable, but to apply what appears to be a exponental component is complete and total malarky!

              Or in other words complete bullshit.
              I'll ignore some of the other bullshit responses from others on this, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on this one.

              So anyway, let me get this right. This article, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, you see as bullshit with no facts or analysis to the contrary (you'd have to do better than a team of highly credible and educated scientists that authored this article)? This article is published in the company of many other interesting articles such as "Metabolism as a driver of immune response," and "Site-specific reactivity of molecules with surface defects—the case of H2 dissociation on Pt".... but I'm sure you wouldn't challenge any of those other articles because you have a politically-motivated bias not to believe in substantial human-caused climate change. And, regarding the scale of the x-axis on the graph, it is very typical to represent far reaching predictions in this way - not only in science but also economics. You seem to be emotionally motivated to find a way to show that this article is wrong no matter what.
              1995 Bayliner 2452 Mercruiser 5.7L Alpha 1 Gen 2

              Comment


                #10
                Originally posted by Fishtank View Post

                I'll ignore some of the other bullshit responses from others on this, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on this one.

                So anyway, let me get this right. This article, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, you see as bullshit with no facts or analysis to the contrary (you'd have to do better than a team of highly credible and educated scientists that authored this article)? This article is published in the company of many other interesting articles such as "Metabolism as a driver of immune response," and "Site-specific reactivity of molecules with surface defects—the case of H2 dissociation on Pt".... but I'm sure you wouldn't challenge any of those other articles because you have a politically-motivated bias not to believe in substantial human-caused climate change. And, regarding the scale of the x-axis on the graph, it is very typical to represent far reaching predictions in this way - not only in science but also economics. You seem to be emotionally motivated to find a way to show that this article is wrong no matter what.
                My concern and calling bullshit on the graphs that it accelerates the rate of change in the future.

                This acceleration has no basis of fact behind it, it is based on speculation.

                If they kept the same rate of change and extrapolated it out over the next century I problbly would have agreed.

                KEVIN SANDERS
                4788 LISAS WAY - SEWARD ALASKA

                Comment


                  #11
                  Originally posted by ksanders View Post

                  My concern and calling bullshit on the graphs that it accelerates the rate of change in the future.

                  This acceleration has no basis of fact behind it, it is based on speculation.

                  If they kept the same rate of change and extrapolated it out over the next century I problbly would have agreed.
                  There is basis of fact behind the acceleration. It is based on observable acceleration in recent history and is projected via "simulations of future climate use a set of scenarios or plausible radiative forcing pathways based on assumptions about demographic and socioeconomic development and technological changes (5)." It would make no sense for the rate of change to be linear when the effects of human activity on climate change are cumulative.
                  1995 Bayliner 2452 Mercruiser 5.7L Alpha 1 Gen 2

                  Comment


                    #12
                    Originally posted by Fishtank View Post

                    There is basis of fact behind the acceleration. It is based on observable acceleration in recent history and is projected via "simulations of future climate use a set of scenarios or plausible radiative forcing pathways based on assumptions about demographic and socioeconomic development and technological changes (5)." It would make no sense for the rate of change to be linear when the effects of human activity on climate change are cumulative.
                    Yep, it makes asumptions based on things that have not happened yet.

                    This is new science, this is not some age old skills and knowledge being put to use. This is very similar to al Gores prediction that the Arctic would be ice free by 2013.

                    Here is how my son who is an actual mathmatition explained it to me.

                    He said you take a data set, and you use that data set to model something. his thoughts are that if you have an error, any error in your base data set, that error will be compounded over time, making your graph worthless.

                    No he has not studied the data sets. He is not a scientist, he is a mathmatition. He is the guy that the scientists give data sets to so they can come up with graphs like the one you presented.

                    KEVIN SANDERS
                    4788 LISAS WAY - SEWARD ALASKA

                    Comment


                      #13
                      Originally posted by ksanders View Post

                      Yep, it makes asumptions based on things that have not happened yet.

                      This is new science, this is not some age old skills and knowledge being put to use. This is very similar to al Gores prediction that the Arctic would be ice free by 2013.

                      Here is how my son who is an actual mathmatition explained it to me.

                      He said you take a data set, and you use that data set to model something. his thoughts are that if you have an error, any error in your base data set, that error will be compounded over time, making your graph worthless.

                      No he has not studied the data sets. He is not a scientist, he is a mathmatition. He is the guy that the scientists give data sets to so they can come up with graphs like the one you presented.
                      With that logic then science is useless.
                      1995 Bayliner 2452 Mercruiser 5.7L Alpha 1 Gen 2

                      Comment


                        #14
                        Originally posted by Fishtank View Post

                        With that logic then science is useless.
                        No, that is not true. Science is very useful. The problem is right now that science is literally guessing about things they do not know about. They are overreaching the science part and are in the realm of speculation. When you look at the science about it I bet they are saying that they have a margin of error of up to 100%

                        Take the 2013 prediction for a ice free arctic. That was based on “science” right? Well, they got it flat wrong. So I would say that it was more speculation than pure science.

                        I have no problem with speculative based predictions. The only problem I have is when you are making huge world policy that affects billions of lives based on that speculation.

                        KEVIN SANDERS
                        4788 LISAS WAY - SEWARD ALASKA

                        Comment


                          #15
                          Originally posted by ksanders View Post

                          No, that is not true. Science is very useful. The problem is right now that science is literally guessing about things they do not know about. They are overreaching the science part and are in the realm of speculation. When you look at the science about it I bet they are saying that they have a margin of error of up to 100%

                          Take the 2013 prediction for a ice free arctic. That was based on “science” right? Well, they got it flat wrong. So I would say that it was more speculation than pure science.

                          I have no problem with speculative based predictions. The only problem I have is when you are making huge world policy that affects billions of lives based on that speculation.
                          Okay, so you guys constantly bring up Al Gore's 2013 scenario where the arctic could be ice free. Gore cherry-picked the most extreme study to illustrate the danger of climate change, and that it could transpire more rapidly than people think. This one scenario did not reflect the mainstream scientific communities conclusion as to when the arctic would be ice free - it was actually an outlier. That's how science works. The thing is, you need to look at the trend and conclusions made by the entire scientific community to see a pattern and consensus on what is happening, why it is happening, and therefore what will happen.

                          I especially have an issue with something you said: "The only problem I have is when you are making huge world policy that affects billions of lives based on that speculation." You (and most conservatives these days) support policy to not do much of anything to combat climate change. Will conservative policy not "affect billions of lives based on speculation?" The conservatives by the way put their belief in personal observations and rhetoric of politicians. I like to leave the science to the scientists.
                          1995 Bayliner 2452 Mercruiser 5.7L Alpha 1 Gen 2

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