Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Budgeting for future 4788 purchase

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    #16
    Originally posted by TravelerBoating View Post
    H

    Today in early 2019, 1999-2002 4788s go for $180k-$190k (hopefully I'm not way off). So I am basing depreciation at around 7% per year. Is that anywhere close to reasonable?

    FWIW a few months ago I charted "asking" prices for 3988's by year and came up with a 6% depreciation rate. I was doing this for different reasons than you, but maybe it's another data point that may be helpful. As everyone has said condition of the actual boat makes a huge difference.

    Comment


      #17
      I think the depreciation rate on boats is an interesting concept. Taking a range of years of a particular model and seeing the average price of each year (the average hopefully taking out variances in condition), and from that, calculating a depreciation rate, seems on the surface like a sound method, but in the case of an out of production boat it has its flaws - particularly if you are trying to apply it to what will happen to the value of that model year going forward. For example, the 4788 was only produced for about 9 years (I may be a little off here, but close) from 1994 to 2002. Yes, if you look at the average price of that range of boats you will find that the newer ones have a higher average price, and can estimate a depreciation rate from the 2002 model to 1994 model. However, you could have done the same study 5 years ago and gotten the same differences, but over those 5 years, the value of each model year has stayed the same or even gone slightly up. Example - a 2002 4788 in 2019 is selling for the same or a bit more than it was selling for in 2014. And same for the 1994 - it has stayed about the same price today as it was 5 years ago, even though is was then and still is worth something less than the similar condition 2002.

      A more accurate way would be to take a particular model and year of boat, and measure its selling price each year for the next 5 years, but of course that would take years and wouldn't tell you anything today . And it wouldn't necessarily tell you about the next next 5 years, as the economy, inflation, new boat build rates, millennial tendancies, and a number of other factors come into play to determine selling prices of used boats. Over a long enough period, though, you can be sure that they will depreciate!
      Mike
      "Allante I" Rayburn 75
      Previous: '97 4788

      Comment


        #18
        Even if the sale prices of the boats stays the same over a 5 year period, there is. in effect. depreciation because of inflation. $150K today will not buy as much as $150K did 5 years ago.

        Boat prices are set by supply and demand. How the economy is doing is an important factor in setting boat prices. Most all of us buy bigger boats because we enjoy boating in them. But hardly any of us need a boat. It is an expensive hobby and a luxury item. So boat prices tend to move up and down depending on how well the economy is doing, which relates to how financially secure we feel and how much disposable income we have available. Good luck to anyone trying to figure out how well the economy will be doing in 5 years, Much of the recent high volatility in the stock market comes from rapidly changing investor perceptions on what the economy will be doing over just the next year or so. Ask analysts how the economy will be doing in 5 years and you either get a blank stare or as many different answers as there are analysts.

        Good luck, hope you find the right boat for you.
        1998 3587 Bayliner, Port Orchard, WA

        Comment


          #19
          Originally posted by baylineguy View Post
          Even if the sale prices of the boats stays the same over a 5 year period, there is. in effect. depreciation because of inflation. $150K today will not buy as much as $150K did 5 years ago.

          Boat prices are set by supply and demand. How the economy is doing is an important factor in setting boat prices. Most all of us buy bigger boats because we enjoy boating in them. But hardly any of us need a boat. It is an expensive hobby and a luxury item. So boat prices tend to move up and down depending on how well the economy is doing, which relates to how financially secure we feel and how much disposable income we have available. Good luck to anyone trying to figure out how well the economy will be doing in 5 years, Much of the recent high volatility in the stock market comes from rapidly changing investor perceptions on what the economy will be doing over just the next year or so. Ask analysts how the economy will be doing in 5 years and you either get a blank stare or as many different answers as there are analysts.

          Good luck, hope you find the right boat for you.
          "
          there is. in effect. depreciation because of inflation. $150K today will not buy as much as $150K did 5 years"
          And of course that is very true - the original 4588's sold for just over $150K when new.
          Northport NY

          Comment


            #20
            I agree that boating is not for the budget minded, however, as a retired cost analyst/estimator, I fully understand what you are thinking. The purchase price as others have noted is condition based, but also market peculiar. The same boat will have a wide variation between coasts, latitude and geography. I happen to live in an area, around Seattle, where we can boat the year round, lots of places to go within short distances or long and moorage is available.
            I grew up boating and when the admiral and I were looking at family recreation there were the obvious choices. I'm not much for camping and hauling luggage in and out of motels on a road trip with two, then four kids was not high on my to do list. Spending a years worth of recreation disposable income on one grand trip to Hawaii was also out. Boating allowed us to have that year round activity. On average, we used the heck out boats as the kids were growing especially considering they did sports and music. We made time to get out as a family whether a solo boat or with our yacht club.
            There were, and are expensive maintenance years, like 2001 when I had to repower and replace the transom reinforcement. Fortunately I, like many others here, enjoy working on my boat, so I was in better control of costs. I bought our current boat knowing there was, and is, work to be done. The black water system was really putting up a stink and there were a bunch of little things that needed attention, but we were able to start using it. This winter I have a significant to do list with about $4000 in supplies for diesel heat, damper plates, propeller tuning and potable water tanks. Oil, filter and coolant changes will add to that. I've been looking at electronics and found that as long as I stay fairly simple, the costs aren't a killer, but it makes my 1988 working radar and depth finders look good.
            Boating is a great recreation and for us, returns its value in enjoyment.
            P/C Pete
            Edmonds Yacht Club (Commodore 1993)
            1988 3818 "GLAUBEN”
            Hino EH700 175 Onan MDKD Genset
            1980 Encounter Sunbridge "Misty Blue" (Sold)
            MMSI 367770440
            1972 Chevrolet Nova Frame off Resto-mod in the garage
            Boating on the Salish Sea since 1948

            Comment


              #21
              Originally posted by baylineguy View Post
              Even if the sale prices of the boats stays the same over a 5 year period, there is. in effect. depreciation because of inflation. $150K today will not buy as much as $150K did 5 years ago.

              Boat prices are set by supply and demand. How the economy is doing is an important factor in setting boat prices. Most all of us buy bigger boats because we enjoy boating in them. But hardly any of us need a boat. It is an expensive hobby and a luxury item. So boat prices tend to move up and down depending on how well the economy is doing, which relates to how financially secure we feel and how much disposable income we have available. Good luck to anyone trying to figure out how well the economy will be doing in 5 years, Much of the recent high volatility in the stock market comes from rapidly changing investor perceptions on what the economy will be doing over just the next year or so. Ask analysts how the economy will be doing in 5 years and you either get a blank stare or as many different answers as there are analysts.

              Good luck, hope you find the right boat for you.
              +1, well said. Might not be what the op was looking or hoping for but that’s the truth of the matter. Best bet is to buy what you can afford now and enjoy boating. I’ve put 3 hours on my 32 in the last two years and a tad over 400 hrs. on my 24’ Seaswirl. I would never have thought that 4 years ago.

              Terry
              1982 3270
              Volvo BB 140 A's
              Killbear Marina, Parry Sound, Ontario, Canada

              Comment


                #22
                Centerline, you are bang on about the few of us that buy a boat that needs work on purpose. It's not just have or learning the skills to do a project, it's also using the correct parts and raw materials. How many times have we seen or heard about solid copper wire being used for 120v or 12v? I too am finding that as I get older I need help doing jobs that require heavy lifting or brute force, and it frustrates the crap out me.
                I think an enterprising kid could do pretty well being that extra pair of hands around a marina. It could be a great basis for a career in boat maintenance.
                P/C Pete
                Edmonds Yacht Club (Commodore 1993)
                1988 3818 "GLAUBEN”
                Hino EH700 175 Onan MDKD Genset
                1980 Encounter Sunbridge "Misty Blue" (Sold)
                MMSI 367770440
                1972 Chevrolet Nova Frame off Resto-mod in the garage
                Boating on the Salish Sea since 1948

                Comment


                • Centerline2
                  Centerline2 commented
                  Editing a comment
                  "I think an enterprising kid could do pretty well being that extra pair of hands around a marina"....

                  at 16years old (too many years ago) this is how I got my first experience at the "marine" way of doing things (riverbend marina newport ore).... at that time in my life it was only another job where the "kid" got all the dirty work that no one else wanted to do, and I got to keep doing it over until I got it right according to the judgment of the old timers (at least I thought they were old at that time) I was working with... proper boat REPAIR is an art that is being lost due to kids not wanting to work with their hands and and their hearts... if one has no love for the art and learning it, they can never make it come out right.

                #23
                I will throw my hat in the ring on buying a boat that needs work on purpose. I usually refer to our boat as a rescue boat. It sufferred some neglect and abuse until we bought her. We paid $44k, just under the $45k valuation for our 1997 3788.

                What that afforded us was a few things. First of all it fit our financial juggling since we had not yet sold the boat it replaced. It saved us on WA state excise tax being taxed 8.8% on $44k compared to buying the same boat in good condition probably north of $80k.

                We have since burned through an estimated $40k on transport and repairs. We received the boat in January and began using it in April repairing this or that along the way. I probably have a couple hundred hours labor into it in addition to the repairs I paid to have done and that saved and paid me because I enjoy boat projects so much. I still have a ways to go and will probably put another $4k and 20 to 40 hours labor in this season. At the end of the day I know my boat inside and out which gives me a great deal of confidence. There is a good deal of satisfaction that comes from knocking things off of the list and experiencing the before and after.

                Sometimes I have thought I should have timed things differently and found a boat that didn't need so much work. But then I think I would have driven myself crazy being potentially without any boat at all for some months. We think we did the right thing.

                We also view the boat as a luxury and do not think what we spend is much different than if we took 2 week vacations travelling each year. And we get out nearly every weekend that is free.
                Tony Bacon,
                Washougal, WA
                Caspian
                1997 3788 Twin Cummins 250hp

                Comment


                  #24
                  Originally posted by TravelerBoating View Post
                  A search on Yachtworld shows 4 Bayliner 4788s below 150k. All of them happen to be older. There are 8 Meridian 490s for sale, of which the two oldest ones happen to be the lowest price and the highest priced ones are the youngest. All of these boats are 12+ years old.
                  Interesting, and significant, change in market availability versus just 6 month ago. Over the summer months, there were often ZERO 4788s and 490s listed on Yachtworld. I realize winter is the time for people to reconsider boat ownership, but this is as many of these boats for sale as we have seen in a couple years. In the PNW, there always seems to be at least one or two 4788s on Craigslist, but likely a boats of questionable value (e.g., price to high for condition). However, the 10 currently listed on yachtworld is as many as I have seen in the 3+ years I have been watching this market. That said, the range of prices appears steady, if not slightly up, on that set of available boats.

                  As for the 490s, the prices are very similar to what we experienced when purchasing a little over 1 1/2 years ago (maybe even a bit higher).
                  GMS
                  2008 Meridian 490
                  2010 ArrowCat Express 30 (sold)

                  Comment


                    #25
                    Originally posted by GMS View Post

                    Interesting, and significant, change in market availability versus just 6 month ago. Over the summer months, there were often ZERO 4788s and 490s listed on Yachtworld. I realize winter is the time for people to reconsider boat ownership, but this is as many of these boats for sale as we have seen in a couple years. In the PNW, there always seems to be at least one or two 4788s on Craigslist, but likely a boats of questionable value (e.g., price to high for condition). However, the 10 currently listed on yachtworld is as many as I have seen in the 3+ years I have been watching this market. That said, the range of prices appears steady, if not slightly up, on that set of available boats.

                    As for the 490s, the prices are very similar to what we experienced when purchasing a little over 1 1/2 years ago (maybe even a bit higher).
                    I just did a search for cummins equipped 4788’smin the PACNW, which is a search that I have done many times in the past just to look at the market.

                    I see four that come up on that search, which is a bit higher than the average I’ve seen of three over the last couple years, but not significantly higher.

                    When I was boat shopping in 2011 there were over 30 listed doing the exact same search.

                    KEVIN SANDERS
                    4788 LISAS WAY - SEWARD ALASKA

                    Comment


                      #26
                      In trying to find (and price) a particular boat model, keep in mind that often boats do not ever get sold or marketed on Yachtworld and are sold privately. The "Sold" stats you can get from Yachtworld listing/sales also don't include condition or how they are equipped.
                      Popular older production boats (such as the 4788) that are well equipped, maintained and in good condition can often sell privately pretty quickly ... via word of mouth at the Marina, a sign on the boat or on Craigslist.. In my year long search for a 3988 .. I viewed several of these (private) listings.. but passed for various reasons (usually for condition OR lack of desired equipment). Sometimes they just asked .."make me an offer". We ended up buying one from an ad on craigslist. Budgets are good to have but give yourself some room for when then you see something in great shape and well maintained. Prices and availability for 3988s are way up in the last year over 2017 when we were looking. Folks must be thinking its a good time to sell.

                      I also think your sales price is on the low side .. especially if that is keeping your from looking at the other (more expensive) boats .. you should look as as many as you can.
                      Althea -- 2000 3988 270 Cummins
                      Semiahmoo, WA

                      Comment


                        #27
                        Chiming in as well... We bought our 4788 in October, 2012. At the time there were 26 4788s with Cummins engines for sale in the Puget Sound. We shopped hard and found a fixer-upper in a distressed-sale situation from a guy who needed the boat sold and didn't really care about the money. Every other boat was asking $180,000 to $220,000. We bought ours for about $30K below the low end, but then dealt with engine and electric issues for a couple of years before getting everything sorted out. Really, really love the boat.

                        In the PNW the prices for a Cummins-equipped 4788 have stabilized around $190,000 to 220,000. I see bargain 4788s in Florida, but the question there is sun damage and storm damage. On top of that there is transport. I know a couple of people who transported their boats across the country and each would never do it again. Removing the radar arch and prepping for the journey, then reattaching everything at the receiving end is not as straightforward as one would think. In addition to being costly, both friends reported unexpected water leakage, damage, and ongoing repair issues.

                        I also agree that new boat prices are keeping our prices steady, if not rising slightly. A brand new SeaRay 50-foot flybridge sells for a couple of million dollars! That makes a used 4788 or Meridian 490 look like a bargain. If I were buying today I would restrict my search to: Cummins-powered; decently maintained; an area where I could bring the boat home on its own bottom. Electronics are easy (not necessarily cheap) to upgrade. Carpeting is surprisingly costly. Don't forget a decent tender.

                        Late Fall is a great time to make aggressive offers, as the season is over and sellers are looking at 6+ months of payments, moorage and maintenance with very few prospective buyers.

                        Good luck!

                        Comment


                        • TravelerBoating
                          TravelerBoating commented
                          Editing a comment
                          I live in the Miami area. Thank you for telling me what to look for. I will be watching out for sun and storm damage.

                        #28
                        Robster, and the many others that have been around here remember my 4788 “deal”

                        I bought a bank owned in need of TLC 2001 4788 in August 2011 for $130,000.

                        The big ticket items to replace were the two Cummins engines, and the generator. There was also a ton of other defered maintenance, along with electronics upgrade, etc...

                        The end result was that my refit cost $140,000. Added to my purchase price of $130,000 and I had at that time $270,000 in a pretty much brand new 4788.

                        Was that a good deal??? Goodness sakes no. Was it what I wanted, yes.

                        In hindsight as much as I have enjoyed having a boat with new everything, I would have been much better off buying the best equipped 4788 on the market at that time, and paying whatever I had to pay to make the deal happen.

                        Now, in my case I do get the advantage of brand new engines and Northern Lights Generator, but like a new boat purchase that is an expensive “feel good”

                        KEVIN SANDERS
                        4788 LISAS WAY - SEWARD ALASKA

                        Comment


                        • TravelerBoating
                          TravelerBoating commented
                          Editing a comment
                          Wow, that really does put things into perspective. What an expensive upgrade. I'm really glad you enjoyed it though!

                        #29
                        I am compelled to add my 2cents on this topic. First great that you are doing due diligence and pricing out expected cost, many first time buyers over emphasize the purchase price and are not ready for the real cost that is the ongoing annual maintenance and unexpected breakdowns that will happen. My wife and I were very similar to your level of detail. We shopped for 7 years, built numerous scenarios and spreadsheets, looked at yacthworld and other sales listings, talked with brokers, etc. for baseline pricing information, talked with people on costs to operate and maintain. We went in fully expecting to spend thousands per year to own and operate based on what it would cost to hire most work done. I then, as I am a very serious do it yourself guy , made a secondary estimates of what I could save by doing it myself. Bottom line was with all the research, costs were still significantly higher for work hired done, as much as 25%, and even when I DIY, materials and parts can be more than expected.

                        Your estimates are just plain to low, and depreciation is far less than typical depreciation rates of the economy for these boats. Further, prices are absolutely regional dependent and they are higher here in the PNW than other regions. This is due to our moderate weather and sheltered waters being kinder to the boat. The lower cost boats are typically in Florida, Sunny California, or some are landlocked and will cost $20k or more to transport, weather conditions such as sun cause significant damages to interior and upper deck surfaces. Florida weather will cause many issues due to humidity, heat and then freezing. Deferred maintenance (a polite term for an owner who underestimated what it cost to own and let things degenerate) can be overlooked by a first time buyer. When you DIY you will spend far more time than expected as these boats have awkward to access systems and rather tight engine bays and if you are not flexible/ agile it can be literally painful to perform some of the needed maintenance.

                        Back to the purchase price, in my experience it becomes a moderate to low expense to buy a boat that has been refitted and well maintained, these boats do hold their value ( if you stay on top of the maintenance) and when you sell you likely will get most of the purchase price money back (again if you keep it maintained). What you won’t recover ever is the annual costs of the maintenance. We just had a great thread here on BOC a few month back sharing annual costs and it can be well over $25k per year. if you own the boat for 10 years you will pay significantly more to own it over that time than it cost to buy it. Moorage, maintenance, repair and upgrades cost more than purchase even of the better maintained and yes higher cost boats. You buy the fixer and you pay more for the repairs, more for upgrade, they will have a higher fail rate costing more than the annual cost of the boat that has been well maintained. What is the value of your time and how much time do you have for DIY? Do you like doing it yourself for what will average out to often less than minimum wage per hour savings? The refited boat may cost you $50k to $75k more, I can assure you who ever put the refits in is taking a big hit. We own these boats because they are a love affair and defy rational behavior.

                        The below has all been said somewhere on this forum, but it is no kidding advice.

                        When buying look for an upgraded boat and only consider the boat if it has good records of what was done over the last decade, do an engine survey, it is a separate cost from the regular, but also important hull and systems survey. Be ready to walk away if anything is not considered in fair or better condition, it can be very difficult to not give into your emotions and spend the extra weeks it will take for these inspections. If the seller won’t wait and is pressuring you that is a red flag.

                        I love my boat, will own it or another until I am old and unable to operate one, I went into the purchase not really limiting my budget, but I am also analytically inclined so did substantial research and still underestimated the cost.

                        If you over estimate and it cost less you will enjoy the boat and have more money to buy fuel and go on longer excursions. If you underestimate you may always feel that it is a financial burden and be stressed when it breaks down in the middle of your vacation , it will, you then need to spend $5000 for the work and loose days of you vacation while it gets fixed just so you can get the boat back to home port.

                        Welcome to the forum,

                        4788 PH 2001, Cummins 370's
                        2355 C Express, 1996 5L
                        17ft Cobra, 1985, 125HP

                        Exploring the Salish Sea

                        Comment


                          #30
                          Why wait?

                          https://miami.craigslist.org/brw/boa...770774359.html




                          Click image for larger version

Name:	FF777AE0-2C85-4CA6-A46F-5B93F8975225.png
Views:	0
Size:	3.58 MB
ID:	479575
                          Esteban
                          Vancouver, BC
                          Former Bayliners 3218, 2859, 2252, 1952

                          Comment


                          • baylineguy
                            baylineguy commented
                            Editing a comment
                            That one didn't last long. It already shows as sale pending on Yachtworld.
                        Working...
                        X